From demonstration to hypothesis
A demonstration can be impressive and still fail to solve a problem someone will pay for. State the hypothesis in terms of customer, need, offer, channel and expected economics. Then identify the assumption most likely to invalidate it.
The OECD examines how generative AI can affect productivity and innovation, while emphasizing the importance of organization, context and adoption. No tool guarantees a sustainable competitive advantage.
Design a bounded test
Choose the smallest experiment that can reveal the critical assumption: interviews, a manual offer, a simulation or a focused technical test. Before starting, define the maximum cost, duration, owner and result that would change the decision.
When testing a new analytical service, compare quality valued by real customers and delivery economics with an existing alternative. One favorable comment does not establish demand or willingness to pay.
Measure learning, quality and risk
Record what was tested, evidence observed, failures and remaining uncertainty. Include accuracy, human review, data security and rights over materials used. NIST’s profile helps structure generative AI controls, but must be adapted to the use.
Avoid collecting sensitive information without an appropriate need and treatment. A test that cannot be operated safely is not ready to scale.
Decide whether to expand, adjust or stop
A healthy portfolio leaves room for improving today’s business and exploring alternatives. Compare ideas against common criteria and acknowledge opportunity cost. At scale, recalculate economics including support, integration and governance.
Jevons helps frame hypotheses, design scenarios and convert findings into decisions, agreeing the role of specialists and partners for each engagement.
Frequently asked questions
When is an idea ready to scale?
When there is sufficient evidence of need, quality, economics and operating capacity for the decision at hand. Thresholds should be set before testing and depend on risk.
How can experiments be compared?
Use common criteria—potential value, evidence, cost, risk and dependencies—without pretending estimates are precise facts. Record the option not to proceed as well.
Sources and further reading
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